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Introducing Oboe. Out now. Human beings are getting stupider. We all know it.  Meanwhile, we’ve spent trillions to make the most incredible technology in the history of humanity, and we’ve outsourced all of our individual agency in the process. (1/3)

People are underestimating what will happen to software as a result of AI. Most are focused on how it'll make creating software incrementally easier, faster, cheaper. Few are discussing just how vast the universe of software becomes when this happens. We will have 100x more software (at a minimum!) as a result of AI. There will be a gigantic long tail of every type of application you could ever imagine. Most will have few users, if any. But a lot of it will be super niche and customized to very specific use cases. Some huge hits will break out. People who make software (without ever actually knowing how to code) will emerge as "creators". Most of these people will be dismissed by purists for not making "real software". And some of these people will become very wealthy. And an entire ecosystem will spring up around it. Marketplaces, tools, entertainment, media, etc. The same thing that has happened to every other form of media is about to happen to software. It'll look like a joke at first. But then it will be far too big to ignore.

Deep Research marks the first time I've been convinced that AGI is already here. The discussion is over.

Technology is not a moat. Never has been. There are so many examples of incumbents copying startup’s technology and leveraging their distribution to crush competition. And AI coding models are quickly making technology even less defensible. With coding models like Claude, assistants like Cursor, and “no code” AI tools like Lovable and Bolt, it’s becoming stupidly easy to copy existing products and apps with virtually no effort. Turns out the stuff that actually matters is what always mattered: strong products, real network effects, ruthless distribution, and brands people actually care about. The winners will double down on those things, while everyone else wonders why their perfect tech keeps getting cloned into irrelevance.

Bet on people who have a motor. If someone is constantly in motion, there's a good chance they're going to find the heat eventually.

Huge opportunity no one is talking about: AI’s accountability layer. It’s easy to manage humans. Way harder to manage dozens, hundreds, thousands, or millions of agents. How will you keep track of the work they’re doing? Massive market to be built around agent management.

Agents are cool and the tech behind Operator and Computer Use is super impressive. But I'm not convinced there are tons of super obvious consumer use cases... yet. That's why everyone always cites the same obvious examples ("imagine you wanted to plan the perfect trip to X..."). Reality is that most of the consumer oriented stuff people do on their computers or phones is around wasting time: forms of entertainment (social, media, mindless shopping) or communication. We want to do these things ourselves, not delegate them. Enterprise is a completely different story. We all do so much crap for our jobs each and every day we'd love to delegate to someone else. Agentic work will 100% be a thing in the very near future here in the enterprise. But for consumers? I think we're a long ways away from mass adoption.

Had to buy out his Intro calendar to pull this off

“Operator” is a term invented by VCs to inflate their employment experience.

Out Wednesday.

Introducing Oboe. Out now. Human beings are getting stupider. We all know it.  Meanwhile, we’ve spent trillions to make the most incredible technology in the history of humanity, and we’ve outsourced all of our individual agency in the process. (1/3)

People are underestimating what will happen to software as a result of AI. Most are focused on how it'll make creating software incrementally easier, faster, cheaper. Few are discussing just how vast the universe of software becomes when this happens. We will have 100x more software (at a minimum!) as a result of AI. There will be a gigantic long tail of every type of application you could ever imagine. Most will have few users, if any. But a lot of it will be super niche and customized to very specific use cases. Some huge hits will break out. People who make software (without ever actually knowing how to code) will emerge as "creators". Most of these people will be dismissed by purists for not making "real software". And some of these people will become very wealthy. And an entire ecosystem will spring up around it. Marketplaces, tools, entertainment, media, etc. The same thing that has happened to every other form of media is about to happen to software. It'll look like a joke at first. But then it will be far too big to ignore.

Deep Research marks the first time I've been convinced that AGI is already here. The discussion is over.

I despise the term “vibe coding” and wish we had all agreed on something else to describe the art and science of non-technical people building software using AI.

Agents are cool and the tech behind Operator and Computer Use is super impressive. But I'm not convinced there are tons of super obvious consumer use cases... yet. That's why everyone always cites the same obvious examples ("imagine you wanted to plan the perfect trip to X..."). Reality is that most of the consumer oriented stuff people do on their computers or phones is around wasting time: forms of entertainment (social, media, mindless shopping) or communication. We want to do these things ourselves, not delegate them. Enterprise is a completely different story. We all do so much crap for our jobs each and every day we'd love to delegate to someone else. Agentic work will 100% be a thing in the very near future here in the enterprise. But for consumers? I think we're a long ways away from mass adoption.

Huge opportunity no one is talking about: AI’s accountability layer. It’s easy to manage humans. Way harder to manage dozens, hundreds, thousands, or millions of agents. How will you keep track of the work they’re doing? Massive market to be built around agent management.

This week officially marks 2 years into my transition from founder/CEO to VC. AMA.

What are some things people can do at home/online to make money instead of their normal, in-person, hourly-paying jobs that don’t translate to WFH? Friend of my is in this situation and wants to find a way to quickly transition so they can pay rent.

cold emails = good cold text and phone calls = insane if someone suggests you cold text a CEO, VC, etc - run far away.

Nothing more pathetic than someone who’s never built something publicly criticizing the work of someone who has.

Technology is not a moat. Never has been. There are so many examples of incumbents copying startup’s technology and leveraging their distribution to crush competition. And AI coding models are quickly making technology even less defensible. With coding models like Claude, assistants like Cursor, and “no code” AI tools like Lovable and Bolt, it’s becoming stupidly easy to copy existing products and apps with virtually no effort. Turns out the stuff that actually matters is what always mattered: strong products, real network effects, ruthless distribution, and brands people actually care about. The winners will double down on those things, while everyone else wonders why their perfect tech keeps getting cloned into irrelevance.